THE THINKING OF FUTURE
WE REVEAL ALL THE SECRETS OF WORLD POLITICS

Russia Versus Turkey: Drone Battles and Gas Disputes

Russia Versus Turkey: Drone Battles and Gas Disputes
18 September 2020

Russia's and Turkey's leaders have a lot in common as politicians. Both harbor grudges against their Western counterparts and are busy fostering their respective country's defiant stance in international relations. Both Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have gotten rid of all political competition and developed their own brands of conservatism. Putin and Erdoğan would make great allies, but the two happen to be adversaries on too many fronts. Russia and Turkey are actively engaged on opposite sides of the civil wars in Syria and Libya. The South Caucasus may now become a new zone of Russian-Turkish rivalry as border tensions between Armenian and Azerbaijani started to escalate in mid-July.

Azerbaijan-Russia Ties Face Increasing Challenges

Azerbaijan-Russia Ties Face Increasing Challenges
16 September 2020

Russia-Azerbaijan ties face increased challenges as Baku accused Moscow of purposefully stoking the conflict by providing arms to Armenia. It is notable that this rhetoric develops when Turkey is particularly vocal in its military support for Azerbaijan. Though it still remains to be seen whether these signs evolve into a concrete policy shift in Azerbaijan, hopes for diplomatic solution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict recede, and Turkey and Russia up their military support for Baku and Yerevan.

(De)globalization and the asianization of the world economy

(De)globalization and the asianization of the world economy
13 September 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic came at a time of diminishing role of the U.S. from the international scene, re-emergence of China as a global power, strengthening Asia-Pacific region, heightened protectionism, weakening international cooperation, rising discontent from hyper-globalization and over-financialization of our digitalized global economy. Actors of international community have never been engaged and interdependent in this level throughout the history.

Energy interests in the Mediterranean and Black Seas

Energy interests in the Mediterranean and Black Seas
10 September 2020

In recent years the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea have emerged as an important alternative source of energy. Therefore, many regional and non-regional states are interested in energy exploration, extraction and transportation to the global energy markets. In July 2020, the US energy company "Chevron" announced the agreement to buy "Noble Energy" for $5 billion. It is worth noting that the deal between "Chevron" and "Noble Energy" is very important because "Noble Energy" discovered Israel's rich Tamar and Leviathan gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea and extracted natural gas from these fields. In the future potential natural gas from these fields will be exported to Europe. In January of the current year Greece, Cyprus and Israel signed an agreement to build the Eastern Mediterranean pipeline (EastMed), which will be able to transport 10 bcm/a of natural gas from the Eastern Mediterranean to the European energy market.

Turkey's Navy put on alert in response to Greek provocations

Turkey's Navy put on alert in response to Greek provocations
09 September 2020

According to the media, this decision was made due to provocations by Greece, which began after Turkey started exploring for hydrocarbons in the Mediterranean Sea.

The Populist-Driven Foreign Policy of Armenia is a Call for Regional War

The Populist-Driven Foreign Policy of Armenia is a Call for Regional War
07 September 2020

For classical realists, the interference of masses in shaping foreign policy brought about the disastrous events (e.g. two world wars) of the first half of the twentieth century, and therefore, they advise diplomats to lead public opinion rather than follow it. This premise, which is arguably more applicable in fledgling democracies with immature state institutions, is indeed a two-way street. In some cases, the leader brought to power by popular action or vote tends to make populist moves to satisfy popular demand and raise more electoral support. If replicated in the sphere of the management of foreign policies, this leads to nationalistic and populist maneuvers in foreign policy with a great risk of regional or sometimes even global ramifications.

Russian military shipments to Armenia – a dangerous escalation?

Russian military shipments to Armenia – a dangerous escalation?
05 September 2020

For many observers, Armenia would not have been able to sustain the occupation of Azerbaijani territories without decades-long military support from Moscow. Therefore, the opinions of those who believe that Russia might have ulterior geopolitical motives behind extending military support to Armenia may override. Others also believe that by keeping Azerbaijan and Armenia at war, Russia aims to keep them on a short leash, thereby maintaining its clout over the regional affairs. However, there are also those who claim that Russia is indeed a genuinely neutral meditator and does not pick sides in this thorny confrontation.

Battle over perceptions: upturned reality

Battle over perceptions: upturned reality
07 August 2020

The protection of minority rights is one of the best-explored cross-disciplinary issues in the social sciences and humanities. A vast literature exists that deals with this subject from different angles, including those of international law, sociology, history, cultural anthropology, political science, and so on. According to Francesco Capotorti, Special Rapporteur of the United Nations Sub-Commission on Prevention of Discrimination and Protection of Minorities, a minority is "A group numerically inferior to the rest of the population of a State, in a non-dominant position, whose members – being nationals of the State-possess ethnic, religious or linguistic characteristics differing from those of the rest of the population and show, if only implicitly, a sense of solidarity, directed towards preserving their culture, traditions, religion or language''.

Armenian foreign policy's defeat at Munich

Armenian foreign policy's defeat at Munich
28 February 2020

The annual Munich Security Conference held a significant session for South Caucasia this year on February 15th 2020. As part of the 56th Munich Security Conference, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev came together in a special session about the problem regarding Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region and surrounding areas invaded by Armenia to discuss the 30-year long issue face to face for the first time before international public opinion. Almost everyone, including Armenian writers, analysts and diplomacy experts confirmed President Ilham Aliyev's overwhelming superiority over N. Pashinyan during the session in terms of statesmanship, basis and consistency of the advocated theses, body language and fluent English. In fact, this legitimate superiority was not only over Pashinyan, but also over the extreme difficulty of advocating for an invasive and artificial state's foreign policy. Clearly it is impossible to advocate for invasion and injustice using reason, logic and information before public opinion.

New stage of Azerbaijan`s foreign policy

New stage of Azerbaijan`s foreign policy
09 January 2020

Experts are analyzing countries` achievements in different areas. Foreign policy is the principal focus of attention because the world is now facing controversial, complex and dangerous processes. Under new circumstances, sovereignty of an independent state is nowadays of crucial importance. In this context, dynamics and results of Azerbaijan`s foreign policy in 2019 hold particular interest. The analysis of facts shows that official Baku made quite serious achievements in foreign policy and increased its effectiveness. In fact, Azerbaijan achieved a new level. President Ilham Aliyev`s titanic efforts ensured Azerbaijan`s foreign policy entering a new stage in terms of sustainability, purposefulness and consistency. This policy has produced tangible results.

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Foreign press

What peace could mean for the South Caucasus
23 February 2021

What peace could mean for the South Caucasus

The South Caucasus is a region historically known for its instability, largely because it has stood at the intersection of the zones of influence of first Byzantium and Iran, then the Ottoman Empire and Iran, and finally between Russia, Iran and Turkey.

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German portal highlights burning of houses by Armenians before Kalbajar handover
17 November 2020 Deutschlandfunk.de

German portal highlights burning of houses by Armenians before Kalbajar handover

The portal says the Armenians must pull out from the district according to the agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, brokered by Russia.

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