The history of international conflicts is regrettably littered with missed opportunities for peace. Rather than accomplishing its aim of charting a peaceful roadmap for postwar Europe, the February 1945 Yalta Conference paved the way for the Cold War by dividing Germany into four occupation zones administered by U.S., British, French and Soviet forces. Now, there exists a fresh opportunity to forge a lasting peace and to extinguish a lingering conflict in the South Caucasus region, where processes of normalization and economic integration are underway in the aftermath of last fall's six-week war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The crushing victory gained by Azerbaijan in the 44-day war will undoubtedly become the subject of scrupulous studies. But it is already obvious that the main factor which determined our triumph was the unity of the people and the authorities, the consistent policy pursued by President Ilham Aliyev.
The Second Karabakh War ended with the signing of a trilateral declaration by Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia on November 10, 2020, that effectively ended the protracted three-decade-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The declaration contained many important provisions that not only ensured the cessation of military hostilities, but also the de-occupation of the remaining Azerbaijani territories, including the cities of Kalbajar (by November 15, 2020) and Aghdam and Lachin (by December 1, 2020) without further fighting (Articles 2 and 6).
The year 2020 was unprecedented for most nations around the world owing to the many challenges ushered in by the COVID-19-induced global pandemic. For Azerbaijanis and Armenians, last year is also remembered for the 44-day war that effectively ended the three-decades-long protracted conflict between their two nations over the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan.
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which underwent tectonic changes after the Second Karabakh War had always had underlying bias perception in Western media, partly caused by religious perception and partly by ideological divide. Strong Armenian diaspora and lobby organizations, present in Western society helped to proliferate certain narrative about the history and the current trend in the conflict. Despite the fact that for almost thirty years internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan was under Armenian occupation, Western media frequently portrayed the conflict as freedom movement of a Christian nation against Muslim Azerbaijan. Such misrepresentation was predetermined by a strong Orientalist bias, which in recent years reinforced by rising Islamophobia and Turkophobia in American and European media.
The five-week-long war in the South Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan for control over Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding districts has ended in a Russia-brokered ceasefire. President Putin has managed to score yet another victory in the region, establishing a foothold, this time on the border with Iran.
"Everything is devastated – the infrastructure is destroyed, residential and administrative buildings are demolished", President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan declared in his address to the nation on 1 December, referring to Azerbaijani territories in Karabakh recently liberated from the Armenian occupation.
The relationship between Azerbaijan and Turkey has been on a developing course since the very beginning of the former's post-Soviet independence, and has now arguably reached its hitherto peak. The unequivocal support by Turkish leaders to Azerbaijan amidst the escalation of its conflict with Armenia, the subsequent joint exercises and drills between their armed forces, and frequent mutual visits of high-ranking officials regardless of the pandemic are some of the highlights in the bilateral relations of the two countries in recent months. While the ethnic kinship and cultural proximity constitute the cornerstone of these bonds, these are common interests and security threats that lead the two brotherly nations toward building a strategic alliance.
What peace could mean for the South Caucasus
The South Caucasus is a region historically known for its instability, largely because it has stood at the intersection of the zones of influence of first Byzantium and Iran, then the Ottoman Empire and Iran, and finally between Russia, Iran and Turkey.
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