Post-Vienna confusion: the truth that shocked the Armenian government

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Baku, 9 April 2019 –

The Armenian media have been spreading absurd and contradictory reports in the wake of the meeting between the Azerbaijani President and the Armenian prime minister in Vienna where they discussed the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. They are obviously concerned about the society realizing the real essence of the talks. The Armenians either accuse Vladimir Putin or try to distort Ilham Aliyev`s words. Experts rightly admit Azerbaijan`s overwhelming superiority over Armenia both in diplomacy, economic development and army building as well as in geopolitics. Against this background, the Armenian political leadership`s and experts` confusion and concern is clearly felt. This article will feature a geopolitical analysis of the situation in the context of peaceful settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.

Armenian leadership vs reality

Official Yerevan has launched another fake propaganda campaign since Nikol Pashinyan was able to discuss the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict with the Azerbaijani President in Vienna. A superficial analysis of this process shows that the Armenians have not yet grown wiser, behaving in a more confused and illogical manner instead. What they try to present as an explanation can in fact be interpreted in a completely different manner. The Armenians are trying to set different scenarios to avoid a fair settlement of the conflict and to draw relevant conclusions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin held telephone conversations with the Azerbaijani President and Armenian prime minister after the Vienna meeting. The Russian leader openly stressed the importance of speeding up the negotiation process to solve the conflict and welcomed the direct talks between the parties. It was normal that the Azerbaijani President and the Armenian prime minister had to share their thoughts on their meeting with Vladimir Putin as Russia is one of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and the Russian President expressed readiness to exert greater influence on the conflict resolution.

But the Armenian media are trying to make a political show of this normal occasion. They allege that it was Putin who phoned Pashinyan because the Armenian prime minister allegedly took a severe approach to the issue. And the most ridiculous is that they allege that Moscow now took a biased attitude towards Armenia since its influence with Yerevan is weakening. This is allegedly the reason behind several Russian experts, including Kolerovs, Migranyans and others lashing out at Armenia. The Armenia media reports also allege that Pashinyan did not thank Putin for his support for conflict resolution. Against this background, in hysteria they quote the Azerbaijani President as saying that "the war with Armenia is not yet over, only the first stage of the war ended''. They interpret this statement as Baku`s readiness for war, and at the same time express their surprise at why Yerevan should thank Moscow.

Such unreal approaches aimed at cheap propaganda, in fact, serve to distort the essence of the negotiation process and push it to dead end. And the reason is clear. Armenia is falling well behind Azerbaijan in all areas, in particular in army building, reforms, socio-economic development and geopolitical aspect. This gap is growing given Azerbaijan`s rapid development. It is already acknowledged by foreign experts who believe that Azerbaijan`s overwhelming superiority over Armenia leaves Yerevan no chances and that if Armenia wants to wage a war, the Azerbaijani army is capable of launching large-scale operations to move deep into Armenia to reach Yerevan. This time military operations will not be local because the April 2016 battles taught Azerbaijan a lesson. The country is now capable of destroying the Armenian army in a more coordinated, powerful and quick fashion. Naturally, Armenian political and military leadership are well aware of this and therefore try to keep the Azerbaijani lands under occupation through intimidation and political maneuvers. So Armenia can never take an anti-Russian attitude. On the contrary, they demand Moscow to treat Azerbaijan more severely. Russia is now more interested in building close relations with Azerbaijan. Moscow does not want its ties with the South Caucasus leader to get cold because of Armenia. In turn, Azerbaijan is interested in developing its relationship with a large neighbor such Russia.

Azerbaijan`s superiority: territorial integrity will be restored!

It should be emphasized that the Armenian media are highlighting Pashinyan`s diplomatic fiasco on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. For example, Past newspaper writes that Pashinyan dispatched foreign minister Zohrab Mnatsakyan to Moscow to persuade Minsk Group co-chairs to include at least some of his previously-expressed views in a joint statement on the results of the Vienna talks. But Mnatsakyan returned empty-handed, driving Pashinyan to fury. The newspaper described the incident as Mnatsakyan`s two failed exams. (see: "Паст": Визит Зограба Мнацаканяна в Москву и гнев премьер-министра – министр "срезался" на своем первом серьезном экзамене / "", 2 April, 2019).

This means that before the Vienna meeting the Armenian leadership already realized that their demands would not be accepted. Some people in Armenia and Russia admit that President Ilham Aliyev reaffirmed his just and unbiased position in Vienna. In an interview with portal, former chairman of the international relations commission at the Armenian parliament Vagram Atanesyan said that what President Ilham Aliyev said during a meeting with his special forces showed that the Azerbaijani leader did not retreat an inch from his position (see: Заявляя о том, что война продолжится, Алиев попытался внушить, что на переговорах с Пашиняном не отступил от своей позиции – Ваграм Атанесян / "", 3 April, 2019).

Russian expert Alexander Khramchikhin believes that the parties failed to reach any agreement in Vienna. (see: "168 жам": Если риторика настолько обострилась, очевидно, что лидеры Армении и Азербайджана не договорились в Вене ни по одному вопросу – Александр Храмчихин о заявлении Д. Тонояна / "", 2 April, 2019).

And the only conclusion official Yerevan derives from all these is throwing the negotiation process into abyss and misleading Armenia and world community by making confusing statements.

It is the main reason that lies behind Armenian defense minister David Tonoyan`s pathetic remarks in America and foreign minister Mnatsakyan`s absurd statement that "Artsakh should take its own place''. Experts openly admit that under no circumstances the Armenian army can defeat the Azerbaijani army. And the Azerbaijani defense minister`s saying that "if Armenia attacks, we will meet with Tonoyan in Yerevan'' reflects the reality.

Foreign minister Zohrab Mnatsakyan`s comments regarding the separatists and terrorists in the Nagorno-Karabakh are absurd. The format of the negotiations has long been clearly known. And the aboriginal population of the Nagorno-Karabakh still remains expelled from their native lands. So it is absolutely unacceptable to use "the will of the Nagorno-Karabakh population'' phrase. There are now Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh along with a small number of the Armenians who were resettled here.

Naturally, everybody is well aware of the situation, including the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. Otherwise, the Armenians` patrons would have acted differently. This means that the Armenian foreign minister`s remarks are groundless and empty.

All this shows that the Vienna meeting threw the Armenians into deeper hysteria. Pashinyan felt the Azerbaijani President`s resoluteness, political will and unchanging position on the conflict. The Armenian prime minister now probably regrets coming to politics. But it is too late. It seems that Pashinyan will be forced to command the withdrawal of the Armenian occupying troops from Azerbaijan`s lands.

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