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Phase of the revolutions in the global geopolitics

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Baku, 05 March 2013 – Newtimes.az
  
There are quite a few evaluations regarding the ongoing process of the reshaping of world order. Certain aspects of the process are being analyzed. Investigations into the matter at times reveal very notable features. The article authored by Joseph Nye, one of the leading American analysts, is appealing from this particular perspective.
  
Information revolution and politics
  
"Project Syndicate” (USA) has published an interesting article titled "The Information Revolution gets Political” (see Joseph S. Nye. The Information Revolution Gets Political. www.project-syndicate, 7 February 2013). The article accommodated interesting ideas that address the essence of the geopolitical processes during current historical phase. The author has conducted analysis of the impact that changes in the information domain exert upon the political environments and the states alike. Several theses suggested by Nye deserve the scrutiny.
  
Author insists that information revolution continues. This process causes cardinal changes in every dimension of the social-cultural life. The intensity of the information exchange has hit unprecedented heights. If in the past we could use telephone to transmit only one piece of information per second, nowadays we are capable of sharing thousands of volumes of information. If in 1980 it would require an entire room to store 1 megabyte, today we carry hundreds of gigabytes on miniature devices in our pockets.
  
Other spheres of information-communication domain also undergo rapid changes leading to the emergence of new content in the social relations within the society. Methods of administration also change. New relations surface between the individual and the masses, between the citizen and the government. Authorities are incapable of controlling the information dissemination as in the past. The issue of increasing role of various segments of the society arises here. Aforementioned adds dynamics to the geopolitical environment.
  
J. Nye believes that these processes also significantly impact intra-state relations. Moreover, every country aims to utilize the revolutionary changes in the information-communication domain for the sake of their interests. Iran, China and Saudi Arabia for instance are undertaking drastic and comprehensive steps to govern the society. Thus, they have managed to somehow neutralize external informational impact. In the meantime, information revolution augments the chances of masses to leverage political environment. Significant role is played by the rapid exchange of information and expanding information access. Viewing the processes in the Arab world in light of this process culminates in interesting conclusions.
  
Essence of the "Arab spring”
  
According to J. Nye, revolutionary processes are ongoing in the Arab world and it is by no means a seasonal issue, and that we are witnessing the course of resolution of problems accumulated in the Arab countries for years. Egypt is a vivid example. Two years ago the Tahrir square was erupting. That wave has ushered the "Muslim brotherhood” into power. Nevertheless the chapter was not closed. Tahrir is yet again a venue for public outrage. Displeased by mere change of leadership, Egyptians demand resolution of problems. Obviously, it is not a "spring” but rather the revolutionary changes. Overhaul programs implemented by the government of Mohamed Morsi are not welcomed by the citizens. Therefore, in light of the developments in other Arab countries, it is safe to conclude that the entire region is engulfed with revolution.
  
Armed confrontation in Syria is nowhere near the end. Even in the event of the collapse of the Asad regime clashes within the Syrian society are likely to continue, because the paramount issue is the realization of cardinal changes in the society. This means that finding common language among the groups both on the political scene and on the battleground will be a challenging task.
  
J. Nye views Iraq in the same context. Author is convinced that withdrawal of the U.S. troops was not the ultimate solution for the country and that the Iraqi society needs modernization throughout all areas. This particular process is abundant with contradictions. Relations between domestic political forces fall short of civil and democratic criteria leading to rift that culminates in armed confrontation. This increases the likelihood of the country to remain gripped in tension for some time to come.
  
Thus, the author arrives to an interesting conclusion by saying that information revolution in the Arab countries is becoming politicized, meaning that the processes have entered a phase of cardinal political changes. Admittedly, this is quite a bold statement. We are talking about a greater geopolitical region that undergoes substantial transformation in the social-cultural, economic and political life. History demonstrates that first – these processes are not confined to a certain region, and second – they have serious geopolitical implications.
  
Two aspects of global geopolitics
 
Such circumstances raise the chances of revolutionary processes to spread over other regions of the globe. This process may produce number of conflicting aspects. Lack of just and fair approach to the processes and application of double standards only increases the risks. In other words, large global powers share more responsibility in modern times. Regrettably, J. Nye fails to mention this aspect in his article, surely not without certain motives.
 
On one hand it has to do with the U.S.’s new global geopolitical role. There is a great deal of speculations regarding the stakeholders in dangerous developments occurring in various regions of the world. Every large power tends to alienate itself from those problems, while accusing their geopolitical rivals. For instance, Russia and China blame the U.S. for escalation of violence in the Middle East. In turn, Washington views Russia as a source of tensions in Eurasia and accuses Beijing of provoking confrontation in the Pacific. In any case, large powers are no longer willing to be seen as instigators of turmoil in various regions. However, this method of evading responsibility is dangerous, as it creates geopolitical volatility that leads to loss of control over the processes. The mankind would suffer the most.
 
It is the possible impact of regional geopolitical processes that deserves scrutiny. Nevertheless, J. Nye fails to address this point in his article. He only mentions the chance of political revolutions to last for years. However, the extent of changes in the global geopolitical environment becomes an issue. Negligence of the author is hard to explain. It is beyond doubt that since the politicization of the information revolution only serves the interests of global powers, similarly it paves the way for processes affecting the entire world. Transition to new world order must envelop the entire world, and not just the regions engulfed with conflicts. In the meantime, it has to be admitted that inter-dependence of states has elevated to a new level. In this context, a problem of a certain Arab state is also an issue for the rest of the world.
 
Most crucial aspect of J. Nye’s article probably has to do with two points that we have mentioned. It is the subject of global geopolitical changes. The author deliberates on the issue of responsibility of global powers. However, volatility is caused by the vague details of the process and greater risks for the mankind are not excluded.
 
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