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U.S. policy in the Middle East: any changes are being expected?

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Baku, September 27 – Newtimes.az

An unsuccessful movie trailer shook the world politics. Anti-Western sentiments in the Islamic world have been lifted to a new level. Now it feels like there is a need to make adjustments in U.S. policy in the Middle East. However, the situation in the region is increasingly becoming tense.

Kissinger’spredictions

Henry Kissinger's predictions about ‘Arab Spring’ are being realized. In one of the articles published in The Washington Post, he said that this process has led the Middle East to an indefinite geopolitical situation. The well-known diplomat put forward the view that the region will intervene in case of sabotage.

Movie trailer (‘Innocence of Muslims’) has become a risk factor that Kissinger avoided. It is very difficult now to predict the direction in which the situation in the Middle East will develop. Muslims continue their attacks on diplomatic missions of the West. No appeal was able to calm then down.

The official Washington limited itself to the sending of marines to the region and discontinued some of embassies over there so far. Experts note that the course of Barack Obama to restore the lost American influence in the Islamic countries has failed. So the question is how U.S. can fill in this political gap. What new connotation could the US Middle East policy regain?

According to the logic of Henry Kissinger’s analysis of the region, the situation is still complicated. There are virtually no matters that were clear to the West. Muslims demand stiff punishment of those who produced this movie. The ban by theFrenchto punish the filmmakers is yet thought-provoking.

Thus, Paris gives new rise to the protests against the West. The Russian prosecutor's office, on the contrary, accepted the movie as an example of extremism and it has been banned from screening in Russia.

By that, the West has automatically taken an anti-Islamic image, while Russia has formed the image of the country that respects Muslims.Frenchinterests in this are unknown yet. The United States has got into trouble though and the way it will come out of the crisis in the Middle East policy is of great interest.

Obama: between electionsand policy

U.S. President Barack Obama finds himself in a very complex situation. Each attack against diplomatic missions of the country on the eve of the presidential elections lowers Obama’s rating. The state power and its security are the most sensitive issues for Americans. U.S. gets hit on both of these sides. Moreover, the information on Al Qaeda being a part of these events has been spreading out.

Barack Obama’s concerns about the country's foreign policy are increasing under these circumstances. In fact, there is a paradox between ensuring electoral victory and pragmatic foreign policy that has been formed for him. Having said that, the chances of the other presidential candidate Mitt Romney increase.

It is also necessary to consider the Israeli factor. Because M. Romney relates positively to the request of Israel to cause a military strike on Iran. Now some experts believe that Tel Aviv is interested in the fall of Obama’s rating.

Amid all this, an explicit need for change in U.S. policy in the Middle East is quite noticeable. As known, the most sensitive issue is associated with Syria. The situation continues to be difficult there. Everything that happens around Iran's nuclear program has its impact as well. In fact, the role of Tehran in escalating the crisis in Syria is important. Iranian officials have acknowledged the provision of military support to Syria. In the case of intervention, assistance with military troops can also be provided. Western experts hold an explicit position that Russia gives Syria the most help. They believe that if Russia stops supporting Assad, the problem will be resolved within a month. That is, U.S. policy in the Middle East comes face to face with Russia and Iran. It is not clear yet how it will overcome this obstacle. Tensions between Israel and the White House also create additional difficulties.

Moreover, new risks factors have recently emerged for U.S. regional policy. The population of its closest allies in the Arab world is angry at Washington for the above-mentioned movie. Al-Qaeda takes it for a good opportunity. This terrorist organization threatens the U.S. that will undertake new measures in order to absolutely destroy its credibility among Muslims. There is no doubt that there are countries that will help al-Qaeda in this end.

Is a new Middle East policy of the United States being shaped?

One of the distinctive features of the present situation is the close interrelation between geopolitical measures taken by the United States in the Middle East policy, as well as towards the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Far East. Muslims have very much increased in numbers in these geographic areas. In addition, the strong geopolitical rivals of the United States have their strong interest in the very edges as well. It is very difficult for Washington to demonstrate the effective and full geopolitical position in such a vast region.

U.S. policy in the Middle East may be uncertain under the current conditions for a while. The effectiveness of those measures will be determined by the development processes related to Iran's nuclear program. In other words, the Iranian issue has become one of the most important elements of the U.S. foreign policy.

Amid all this, the dissemination of information in the world media on the time limit allowed for military strikes on Iran is quite thought-provoking. Perhaps the Obama administration gives a pre-election message to the Jews by showing himself ready to take drastic measures. It is also impossible to deny the fact that the United States states that Iran is directly related to the existing provocation against it in Muslim countries.

Dissemination of tough information on Iran does not seem to be a simple occasion in any case. It is also worth noting that earlier Iran has threatened the West and its allies with al-Qaeda. Turkish intelligence has revealed its doubts and a number of facts about the support that is provided to Iran by the PKK. As evident, a geopolitical struggle in the Middle East is at such a level that the further development of events is under question.

U.S., as the world's most powerful state, will not refrain from taking serious measures to change this situation in its favor. If the preference will go to the war with Iran, then the Middle East and Caucasus will have geopolitical problems. In this regard, wide-scale military exercises conducted by the Russians in the Caucasus lead to thoughts. Now it seems that the world's leading geopolitical powers are preparing for significant changes on global scale. The main issue is the seamless development of the process without the loss of human lives.

Kamal Adigozalov

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