Situation in Armenia: internal crisis, foreign policy fiasco

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Baku, 4 August 2017 –

The Armenian media have recently been making attempts to explain official Yerevan`s policy by using a strange logic. This mainly manifests itself in exaggeration of Azerbaijan-related issues. On the one hand, they spread false information on the Azerbaijani army`s retaliation against the Armenian provocations, and on the other, try to accuse the Kremlin of selling arms to Baku. Failing to put forward any convincing argument, Armenia, as usual, resorts to slander. It is obvious that the Azerbaijani military is several times stronger than the Armenian armed forces. Azerbaijan retaliates strongly against each provocation of the Armenians. At the same time, Azerbaijan is continuously increasing its defense capabilities. Baku also continues to purchase weapons from Moscow. The leaders of Azerbaijan and Russia maintain regular contacts, discussing and searching for ways to address regional and global geopolitical problems. This irritates official Yerevan. But it is impossible to hide the reality – the social, political, economic, spiritual and moral crisis is deepening in Armenia.

Powerful army: official Baku`s success

Activity of Azerbaijan`s diplomacy has thrown the Armenia government into total disarray. Yerevan`s unjust and prejudiced stance forces it to make fictitious claims. Armenian experts put forward illogical arguments to explain Yerevan`s position. But it will all sort itself out in the end.

The Armenians have recently been seriously concerned about two issues. The first is that the Azerbaijani army retaliates very severely and strongly against Armenia`s provocations. The second is that official Baku successfully develops its relations with Moscow thanks to the Azerbaijani government`s independent and careful foreign policy. These two points clearly show the fiasco of the Armenian diplomacy and military policy.

The Armenian government is trying to distort the essence of the Azerbaijani army`s retaliation. Run by Sargsyan`s criminal and oligarchic regime, local media are trying to substantiate Yerevan`s claims either by exaggerating the Armenian political leaders` confusing statements or by bringing Iskander missile system to the fore. But the Azerbaijani defense minister`s warning that the country`s military is capable of downing Iskander missiles has left the Armenians speechless. The Armenians cannot hide the devastating situation within their military any longer. The media are extensively covering the growing cases of suicides and murders among soldiers, desertion and other crimes within the army.

In order to conceal these facts, they event created a fake Facebook account, which they use to spread false and provocative information about the Azerbaijani army. But all these efforts are doomed to failure. Azerbaijan`s Ministry of Defense made a statement and proved that "Tofig Ibrahimov” account was created by the Armenians.

This dealt a serious blow to Yerevan`s propaganda. It was revealed that the largest part of the fake news about the Azerbaijani armed forces are produced by the Armenian special services, and that there are no grounds for believing them.

Another reason for official Yerevan`s confusion and frustration is the deepening defense cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan. Moscow sells state-of-the-art weapons to Baku. This arms trade, which is carried out within international law, is not aimed against any third country.

Azerbaijan is building up its defense capabilities, while Russia is involved in this process within its national interests. Azerbaijan has not used any of the weapons it buys from Russia against Armenia. But if necessary, Baku will mobilize all resources to protect itself and take appropriate retaliatory action.

But the Armenian Apostolic Church, Armenian diaspora, political elite, ideologists and ''patriotic'' men are incapable of realizing this. They believe that despite the fact that Armenia is the real occupier, the world community should recognize Azerbaijan as the aggressor. The most ridiculous thing is that Yerevan wants the Western countries and Russia to press Azerbaijan to resign itself to the occupation and allow the Armenians to create the second so-called state in the South Caucasus.

But this will never happen, and moreover, the Armenians will have to prove the legality of the state they established in Iravan (today`s Yerevan) governorate, which they had occupied from Azerbaijan. History and justice demand this.

Against a background of Azerbaijan`s diplomacy, this also exerts a strong influence on another issue. Sargsyan`s regime is accusing the Kremlin through the media outlets that it controls. The Armenian government reacted ridiculously in particular to Vladimir Putin`s conducting negotiations with President Ilham Aliyev in Sochi. Armenian political analysts and experts put forward very shameful allegations that Putin said that meeting with the President of Azerbaijan is a problem.

A failed slander: Baku-Moscow relationship is developing

But in reality in response to a question given at Sirius education center the Russian President said he would discuss geopolitical issues with the Azerbaijani President. Hailing topicality of those issues, Vladimir Putin said they were of vital regional and global importance. But the Armenian "thinking” leaders have such primitive "analytical” minds that they made those ridiculous and shameful statements. At least, by labeling the Russian President as an incompetent diplomat, the Armenians stepped out of line.

The reality is that Vladimir Putin gave preference to discussing the regionally important issues with the President of Azerbaijan and not Armenia. And the Russian leader was right as with his active and constructive efforts, President Ilham Aliyev has been making a considerable contribution to developing regional cooperation and ensuring global energy security for many years. But all that official Yerevan has been doing so far is keeping up fictions in order to justify its aggression and occupation.

How does it reflect socio-political and economic situation in Armenia? It is obvious that the new Armenian government is unable to carry out any effective program or reform. The Armenians are leaving the country in masses. Several Armenian websites have recently reported about devastating demographic and social situation in an Armenian village whose residents are leaving to Russia in huge numbers. That village is hit by the growing number of divorces, which already reached 10 per cent.

Young Armenian men are splitting from their wives to set up new families in Russia. And the reason for all this is that they cannot find employment or live a normal life in Armenia, and have their rights violated there. One of the major reasons is that they refuse to be conscripted to the Armenian army in Azerbaijan`s Nagorno-Karabakh district.

The Armenian authorities have failed to fulfill any of the promises they gave to the people who had voted for them. The government, too, is unable to work effectively. According to Armenian experts, the primary reason behind this is that Yerevan totally depends on Moscow. Russia completely controls Armenia`s economic and energy sectors. And this control is expanding.

As far as Armenia-US relationship is concerned, the Armenian media reports point out a poor level of these relations. Washington demands that Yerevan be independent at least in its defense policy. Obviously Washington does not realize the impossibility of this because in reality there is not an independent Armenia. There is just a small country controlled by the Kremlin. The Russian political circles have repeatedly said that Armenia is nothing without Russia. If Washington does not understand this, it will only have itself to blame.

Under these circumstances, demanding any independent steps from Armenia is like beating the air.

The reality is that Armenia`s becoming an independent state is still impossible. One should speak with Armenia`s patrons, rather than with the country itself. The Armenian media`s hysteria is aimed at the internal audience as a way to deceive people and hide the truth from them.

But history shows that this cannot continue for long and there will be a point of discontinuity. Armenia will face a serious crisis as a state in the near future. The ongoing problems will affect the fate of the country`s statehood. And the only way Armenia can avoid this tragic fate is to withdraw its armed forces from Azerbaijan`s territories.

Then the Armenian politicians should learn the culture of dialogue as their current rude, awkward and radical rhetoric is only sending Armenia into the depths of despair. Interestingly, the Armenian people do not want to wake up from ignorance, which will have catastrophic consequences. But there is a saying ‘You've made your bed, now lie in it’.

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