After fiasco of traditional paradigm: chaos or new regularity?

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Baku, 30 November 2016 –

Many political analysts say geopolitical uncertainty is now spreading around the world. This in fact has been spoken about for many years, but now it`s a much deeper problem. According to experts, countries are becoming weaker. Naturally, it is quite an interesting conclusion. But if this situation persists, it can put the future of mankind at risk. What is the way out? Unfortunately, no one has an idea. But there are grounds for optimism as the history has already witnessed similar situations. Taking advantage of this opportunity certainly requires tremendous theoretical and practical efforts as building a new paradigm is not an easy task.

A 25-year-old forecast come true

In 1990, Charles Krauthammer, the renowned Pulitzer prize winner, political commentator proclaimed that with the fall of the Soviet Union the US had a duty "to lead a unipolar world” that will last for 25 years. And this forecast proved accurate. Political analysts believe that Donald Trump` win in the presidential election marked the beginning of fundamental changes in the global political system. They describe his victory as "the turning point in the political system” (see: Фёдор Лукьянов. США как источник непредсказуемости / "Россия в глобальной политике", November 14, 2016).

But this new stage may bring serious changes to all regions. International instability does not pose so much danger because of direct military clashes, as because it shakes countries from within. The major challenges for countries in this context is to try their best to build up their strength and ensure their stability..." (see: previous source).

This means that irrespective of their might all countries should prioritize the strengthening of their statehood. And every county will try its own receipt (see: previous source). Fyodor Lukyanov believes that "...every man for himself philosophy" is becoming a leitmotif of the global politics" (see: previous source).

If the Russian political analyst is right, then the world will witness serious geo-political changes. Several years ago Francis Fukuyama wrote that "Weak or failed states are the source of many of the world's most serious problems” (see: Francis Fukuyama. State-Building: Governance and World Order in the 21st Century. Cornell University Press, 2004, 160 p.). This thesis is echoed by other experts who draw their conclusions based on ongoing global geo-political processes.

Political analysts and experts say global instability is deepening, and believe that danger can tear countries apart from the inside. What are these devastating factors? They rate terrorism as the number one danger as radical forces are emerging in different regions. Radicals refuse to obey to common rules and regard restrictions placed by governments as the primary impediment to their freedom to live their lives. Therefore governments are the number one target for them.

Another danger, experts believe, is weakening confidence of western societies in the political elite. This point cemented itself after Donald Trump won the presidential election in the United States. They say it is Americans` losing confidence in the political elite that paved the Republican`s way to the White House. Other western countries also have similar cases. Take Brexit, for example.

One should admit that if this process continues, statehood in western countries will certainly be put at risk. This will lead to chaos in a large political area, and experts do not rule out that this chaos will have serious implications for other regions of the world. But if each country follows its own path to salvation, mankind can face the risk of extinction.

A salvation paradigm: historical experience and constructive dialogue

Interestingly experts say countries will not manage to combine efforts to tackle this growing instability. But why don`t they join efforts? It seems that the main reason is that population in developed countries does not have confidence in the political forces. And the US plays a key role here again because it is America where citizens unexpectedly lost confidence in the political elite. So America unwillingly became one of the main factors of global uncertainty (see: previous source). Situation is worsened by the fact that almost half of the US population do not see Donald Trump as their president. This means that uncertainty in America can degenerate at a broader scale. America`s weakening will definitely have negative implications for other countries.

This leads to one conclusion that uncertainty in global politics may deepen, which in turn may trigger the activation of anti-government forces in regions. These forces will first and foremost attempt to shake government fundamentals by recruiting young people.

One of the repercussions of the collapse of the international law system is that aggressive forces can get freedom of action. Countries with weak statehood, like Armenia, may completely become sources of chaos. Influenced by separatist and radical groups, they may try to aggravate situation in the region. This may generate very serious problems amid weakness of international organizations.

The similar forecast can be made with respect to regional aggressors. And this instability can spread around the world. But what do experts advice to tackle this situation? Interestingly they only analyze the situation and never propose ways of dealing with problems. It is worth thinking of the reason behind this. Is it rational to turn a blind eye to what can put global security at risk? It is impossible. So there are certain reasons.

The point is that superpowers are unable to quit their global leadership ambitions. They seem to remain indifferent to this instability in order to fish in troubled water later. But it is too risky as the fate of the world is at stake. Situation needs a constructive solution proposal. Although the traditional geo-political paradigm has changed, mechanisms for saving the world still exist. Dialogue is a crucial factor here. Governments should realize that saving the world order is possible only through concerted efforts.

Therefore a new salvation paradigm should be set up. But unfortunately its outlines have not yet been elaborated even at a theoretical level, which is the most serious problem.

A look at situation from a different perspective shows that the global politics tends to become more and more complicated, which is directly caused by globalization. But current trends are in fact anti-global in nature. In this context, can weakening integration and strengthening uniqueness become a way-out for the world? Have there been any similar instances in the history of mankind?

One recalls an interesting fact: Europe entered its new era after the collapse of collectivism of the Middle Ages caused by a wave of protest by dissatisfied people, didn`t? At that time pro-feudalism forces were also speaking of catastrophe and the fall of statehood. But the bourgeoisie`s growing powerful paved the way for different historical processes. Therefore the ongoing instability can provoke the emergence of a new world order. But this requires a separate philosophical, geo-political and theoretical analysis.

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