Geopolitical changes in South Caucasus: John Bolton vs Armenia

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Baku, 4 July 2019 –

Information warfare refers to attempts to influence public opinion for certain purposes. It may also involve absurd allegations against superpowers. But under current volatile geopolitical conditions, manipulation of public opinion may trigger very unpleasant processes. In this context, allegations made by Armenian experts contain dangerous nuances. In order to make their information warfare persuasive, Armenians make allegations against other countries` officials. But sooner or later the truth comes out. However, in many cases public opinion may be misled. This article will analyze primitive aspects of Armenians` information warfare.

By the back door: Confusing reflections on Bolton`s identity

The United States` South Caucasus policy is very interesting and thought-provoking. Main features of the attitude of the world`s most powerful state towards the region were always the focus of experts` attention. Particularly, ongoing global geopolitical processes and controversial events have an impact on the South Caucasus just like other regions of the world. Against this background, Washington`s policy towards the Caucasus holds special interest for us.

The U.S. President`s national security adviser John Bolton is working actively in relation to the Middle East and South Caucasus. This attracts attention of Armenian experts among others. In his article, one of them reflects on Bolton`s attitude towards the South Caucasus.

Yervand Bozoyan tries to give a description of the U.S. national security adviser`s political and diplomatic characteristics.

The Armenian expert labels Bolton as an ardent opponent of Iran and supporter of Turkey. He says that Bolton sees Turkey-Azerbaijan duo as the leading force in the South Caucasus. By using this force, Washington can take a harsher attitude toward Iran. At the same time, the U.S. wants Armenia to close its border with Iran. Armenia should accept a powerful Azerbaijan and a powerful Turkey because it has no other option. Otherwise, Armenia will have to withdraw from the Nagorno-Karabakh immediately and may even face the risk of vanishing as a state.

In addition, Nikol Pashinyan needs to eliminate the Karabakh clan and explain the reality to the Armenian society. But whether he will cope with this or not still remains a question. This naturally means that the situation of Armenian leaders continues to be uncertain. There is a need to eliminate Russia`s influence on Armenia and change the anti-Turkish moods in the society. Turkey is the major geopolitical force in the South Caucasus. And Nikol Pashinyan is needed to change the public opinion.

It is possible to cut Armenia`s border with Iran by exchanging one district in Nagorno-Karabakh for Meghri district. As if Baku and Ankara agreed. As regards Georgia, John Bolton sees it as an obstacle in the south of Russia. Georgia can also be used in the military operation against Iran.

The Armenian expert attempts to build an image of John Bolton as a politician and diplomat. He uses some episodes from Bolton`s biography, describing him as an advocate of war. John Bolton believes that conducting negotiations with Iran, North Korea and Cuba is useless and they should be eradicated. He has the same opinion about Russia and its allies – they should be destroyed at any price.

The Armenian expert also calls Bolton an ardent supporter of Jews. In 2010, he co-founded the Friends of Israel Initiative, which aims to protect the interests of Israel everywhere and every time.

So John Bolton is described as a politician and diplomat who advocates the interests of both Israel and Turkey. Bolton "is defending Israel`s interests everywhere'', and also considers Turkey as the "most reliable'' ally of the United States.

The Armenian expert also alleges that Bolton would like the South Caucasus to be dominated by Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance. In this scenario, Iran and Russia will be thrown to the background.

Azerbaijan-Turkey pair: confronted with Iran and Russia

As Armenian experts traditionally have anti-Turkish and anti-Azerbaijani position, Bozoyan`s reflections obviously pursue dirty intentions. But there is the other side of the story that attracts his attention. His other articles shed a light on his intentions as he is trying his best to distort real facts about Azerbaijan and Turkey and accuse them.

The Armenians are conducting an information warfare which aims to build a wrong public opinion that Azerbaijan and Turkey are collaborating against Russia and Iran. They allege that John Bolton shares common interests with these countries. And this "commonality'' is now "deepening'' to split Iran.

They call Turkey-Azerbaijan pair Iran`s enemy number one in the region and allege that Washington is interested in ensuring hegemony of these Turkic countries. Here we see a dirty attempt to cast doubt on the objectivity of Donald Trump`s letters to the President of Azerbaijan.

As regards Turkey, it is becoming obvious that no one will be able to prevent this country`s development. This can change the geopolitical balance of power both in the South Caucasus and other regions. Even Armenia will be forced to accept the factor of a strong Turkey. And the best option here is to encourage Russia`s jealousy. Moscow, of course, has vast historical experience and will not be enticed to any cheap ideas. However, it is possible to influence certain layers of society.

The picture is therefore clear: different scenarios are set to spoil the increasingly deepening and expanding Turkey-Russia, Turkey-Iran, Azerbaijan-Iran and Azerbaijan-Russia relations. They even shamefully label Bolton, an ardent supporter of Israel, as an ardent supporter of Turkey.

We do not know if there is any superpower that wants strong Turkic states to emerge in a large geography. At the same time, labeling Azerbaijan as "the continuation of Turkey in the Caucasus'' is also a completely false approach. As an independent state Azerbaijan does not represent any other state except for itself. The country built its foreign policy based on its national interests and pursues a fully independent policy.

In addition, Azerbaijan chose a policy of building the closest possible cooperation with Turkey because Ankara`s attitude is the closest to that of Azerbaijan in the region. Why should Azerbaijan deny this natural alliance? Why should Baku and Ankara drift apart, while all countries around the globe are striving for sincere cooperation? No one can answer negatively to these questions.

Naturally, hostile forces are worried by the improving relations of Turkey and Azerbaijan with the United States. Their worries are particularly worsened by the result of Trump-Erdogan meeting held in Osaka and Trump`s letters to the Azerbaijani President. Against this background, Armenia is unable to make any tangible move and its situation is now miserable.

Developing Azerbaijan-Russia relations should also be taken into account. The presidents of the two countries enjoy wonderful relations, while Vladimir Putin`s relationship with Nikol Pashinyan is not so warm, which points to Yerevan`s problems with Moscow.

Armenians are using primitive methods of information warfare. Naturally, as an official of a superpower such as the United States Bolton can build serious plans. But there are no doubts that America`s interests are above everything for him. All other issues are less important and depend completely on the national interests. Everybody is well aware of this.

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