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The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: double standard-caused “time trouble”

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Frozen conflicts in the South Caucasusare posing a greater threat against a background of the emerging global geo-political picture.

On February 10, 2012 the radio service Golos Rossii (Voice of Russia) reported that Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov clearly pointed out to “hot” spots in the global geo-political scene. The FM linked this threat to the events in several Middle Eastern countries.

Speaking to a ceremony marking the professional holiday of diplomats, Lavrov said international stability continues to be undermined. He emphasized tense situation in the crisis countries. It is clear from Lavrov`s remarks that the world powers do not have a common opinion on modern global geo-political processes. And they realize that the current situation can cause dangerous consequences. The superpowers are talking about “the crawling global depression”.

At the same time the media published the US intelligence service chief`s report on hot spots around the globe. The report featured several points on the South Caucasus, suggesting that conflicts inGeorgiaandAzerbaijancan be a source of war in theSouth Caucasus.South Ossetiaand Abkhazia are at the forefront of the report, which puts less importance on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But the report does not clearly show the reasons behind this, while it many times emphasizes the responsibility of the conflicting parties.

It should be noted that the opinions of independent Western and Russian political analysts differ little. For example, on “Caspian Intelligence” portal, Alex Jackson forecasts that the situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh will continue to be tense this year because of Armenia`s and Azerbaijan`s behavior (see). S. Konovalov writes in “Nezavisimaya gazeta” newspaper that, in fact, the preparation for the war has already begun (see). Referring to General Y. Netkachev, he says thatRussia “will be forced to break the Georgian transport blockade” amid the threat of war againstIran.

However, in “Komsomolskaya pravda” newspaper, M. Barabanov, a military expert, comments on a statement of Chief of Russia`s General Staff Nikolai Makarov, stressing that “some of NATO countries try to interfere in Russia`s regional interests”. He forecasts that this can even cause a nuclear war.

Against a background of the aforementioned, Zhirinovsky`s famous saying that “the world war three will start in the Caucasus” can be considered the ravings. But as his opinions coincide with those of the aforementioned acclaimed analysts the boundary between sanity and insanity seems to have disappeared.

AndFrenchPresident Nicolas Sarkozy`s attempt to pass a law criminalizing the denial of the so-called Armenian genocide, which can serve as a caricature for the world`s geo-political picture, can be added here.

Anyway, along with the content of these forecasts the most important is who makes these forecasts. These circles themselves make the situation tense, and then adopt “a solemn and wise” pose and start speaking of wars and threats.

First of all, we won`t be wrong to say that those who speak of the threat of the Nagorno-Karabakh war are those who shape the policy of theUnited States,RussiaandFrance. It is these countries that have been “settling” the Nagorno-Karabakh problem for 20 years. If the Nagorno-Karabakh is truly a potential source of war then it is the co-chairing states that are to blame for this because they have been only satisfying caprices ofArmeniaand the Armenian diaspora instead of taking practical measures. More precisely Armenians are using their aggression plans to look after their own interests. In this case finding a just solution to the problem becomes the issue of minor or even lesser importance. Diplomats call this “double standards”.

Second, these sirs do not know speak of the war threat in the interest of the security of local population. The aforementioned brief analyses show that they again try to define what steps to take in a tense situation to protect their own interests, or pretend to be making their steps meet “true geo-political interests” and requirements of the “world security system”, etc.

The situation is truly dangerous, so it makes one think. There has not yet been a political or diplomatic program or idea which could have prevented the real danger. With the situation remaining unchanged, a time trouble will emerge in the settlement of the conflicts in theSouth Caucasus. In other words, there will be no time for just settlement of the dispute.

Kamal Adigozalov

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