As the superpowers spar for influence on the global level, it exacerbates the risk factor in different regions. Development scenarios around the processes in the South Caucasus are subject of particular interest. European think-tanks produce projections of their own on this issue but those forecasts differ with respect to certain aspects. There are some fascinating theses, most importantly on Russia and the issue of the conflicts. Armenian analysts choose to address the issue of a war. According to them, only a war can make Armenia independent – the one between the U.S. and Russia. The future of the South Caucasus is a matter of grave concern in light of such an utterly perilous prospect. Would the world fall for another Armenian provocation?
The U.S. does more than express opinion on the developments around political and security problems – it finds political and military ways of interfering. The geography of such meddling spans continents – from the South-East Asia to the Middle East, from Africa to Latin America and even Europe. Everywhere, America's meddling pursues one goal – to impact the developments in line with own interests and utilize to the maximum extent every political and military means available.
Not long ago, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have marked 20 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the republics. Over the years of independence, our countries have achieved impressive results, such as rapid economic growth and socioeconomic stability. We have a very good relationship, which has become synonymous with mutual trust and equality. The foundations of these ties were built on the principles of friendship and partnership and were, of course, laid by National Leader of Azerbaijani people Heydar Aliyev and President of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Leader of Kazakh nation Nursultan Nazarbayev. These relations have been continuing to grow and develop under the current President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev.
The assassination of Russian ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov has provoked a huge geo-political response and condemnation. It is natural since any country has its diplomats and terror against them is unacceptable. The Turkish diplomacy, for example, has suffered a lot from the Armenian terror. Ankara is more interested than others in investigating the cause of the shooting of ambassador Karlov. The other side of the story is linked to violent geo-political struggle in the Middle East. After the assassination of the ambassador Russian defense minister Sergei Shoygu said Turkey played a key role in the liberation of Aleppo. Meanwhile, a meeting of foreign ministers Lavrov, Cavusoglu and Zarif was hailed as a success. Does it mean that Russia is establishing a new coalition in the Middle East? And what will be its relationship with the US-led international coalition, of which Turkey is also a member.
Istanbul bleeds again as a fresh wave of terrorist attacks killed dozens of innocent people. The brotherly nation once again united against the evil of terrorism. The country`s leadership reaffirmed its commitment to the development line and readiness to put zeal in this mission. Letters of condolence were pouring in from friendly countries. The President of Azerbaijan also expressed his sympathy with the Turkish nation. Experts look at this incident in a geo-political context. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said certain forces carry out a dirty trick campaign against Turkey. The terrorist attacks are committed by their servants. Ankara is determined to get to the root of the problem, and no one can stop it. Experts are now trying to forecast possible geo-political repercussions of the latest terrorist attack.
Many political analysts say geopolitical uncertainty is now spreading around the world. This in fact has been spoken about for many years, but now it`s a much deeper problem. According to experts, countries are becoming weaker. Naturally, it is quite an interesting conclusion. But if this situation persists, it can put the future of mankind at risk. What is the way out? Unfortunately, no one has an idea. But there are grounds for optimism as the history has already witnessed similar situations. Taking advantage of this opportunity certainly requires tremendous theoretical and practical efforts as building a new paradigm is not an easy task.
While the world`s energy executives gathered in Istanbul for the Energy Congress, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan organized an absurd "forum" in New York. Called Armenia Investment Forum 2016, this gathering neither had anything to do with its name nor provoked any interest. Although official Yerevan wanted to attract investment in Armenia, it found itself in a ridiculous and shameful position. The "forum" did not feature any serious discussions, no decisions were made at the gathering either. Although the official Armenian propaganda attempted to exaggerate some points, this proved ineffective because people believe in reality rather than in what the Armenian leadership says. In reality, the Armenian population is getting more and more plunged into financial difficulties. The country`s economy is getting increasingly dependent on external factors. Even the incoming prime minister and several ministers complain of the difficulty of the situation. This means that the Armenian government again faces fiasco and is dragging the country into uncertainty.
A stand-off over the Middle East problem is further straining relations between the USA and Russia. Official Washington sharply condemned the air strikes on the Syrian city of Aleppo, which killed 323 civilians, including children, and hit two hospitals. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said what is happening in Aleppo is worse than "a slaughterhouse". Experts believe these developments will add to the uncertainty of the geo-political situation in the Middle East. They do not even rule out a regional war. What implications will the escalation of the Syrian conflict have for the global geo-political situation?
The Syrian crisis is full of surprises. Big nations of the world and the region actively interfere with the situation in that country. Truth be told, today Syria resembles a quagmire. This country has turned into a battleground where interests of the West, led by the U.S., and Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia collide. Yet no concrete results are visible; armed clashes are not subsiding and rampant terrorism continues to threaten other regions in the vicinity. Meanwhile, the Turkish Special Forces have started to render substantial assistance to the Free Syrian Army in the north of the country. Strategic town of Jerablus has already been cleared of terrorists. Ankara stated that the process would continue until ISIS and PYD were completely eliminated in the region. It is fascinating that the big players do not demonstrate fierce opposition to Turkey's actions. Even the U.S., France and Germany voiced their support to Turkey. Nevertheless, the experts warn that putting boots on the ground in Syria is a risky venture. What could be the outcome of the process?
Federica Mogherini, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission articulated several fascinating theses during her visit to Azerbaijan and Armenia. First, she visited Baku where she attended the Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council Second Ministerial Meeting of and exchanged views with nation's top leaders. She then travelled to Yerevan. While in Baku, she emphasized particular attention that EU paid to cooperation with Azerbaijan. She also highlighted important role played by Azerbaijan in ensuring Europe's energy security, which should be seen as for Brussels, relations with Azerbaijan are of strategic significance. In Yerevan, she stated that the EU was not looking for satellites and that Europe needed strong partners. In fact, those messages indicate the priorities in the organization's South Caucasus policy. One could guess that this posture could have implications within the global geopolitical environment.