Global chaos threat

You are here: Main page »» Experts »»
 0 comment Line Spacing+- AFont Size+- Print
Line Spacing+- AFont Size+- Print

Baku, 24 April 2013 –

Renowned American analyst Zbigniew Brzezinski recently evaluated some of the global scale developments. Ideas he delivered were both interesting and notable aimed at clarifying some of the most pressing issues. He forwarded interesting theses regarding the idea of Eurasian integration, Russia-China relations and establishment of a free trade zone between the U.S. and Europe.

What does "Enlarged West" mean?

In his interview with Polish "Polska" newspaper, Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former national security adviser to the U.S. President, deliberated on pressing and notable issues with respect to global geopolitics. Ideas and forecasts of an eminent analyst from the aspect of future fate of the world are thought provoking. Seemingly, Brzezinski is concerned with the fate of the U.S. as a leader on the global scale and Eurasia and China are regarded in this particular context (see: Бжезинский: Следует укрепить Запад, включив в него Россию, Украину и Турцию // "", 1 April, 2013).

It must be stressed that Brzezinski disbelieves the idea of Eurasian integration. All of his reasoning in the article is based on that idea. Instead, he introduces the term "Enlarged West” that bears no geographic substance and is purely geopolitical. He refers to creation of geopolitical picture in the large space inclusive of the Middle East, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey that conforms to the strategic interests of the West. According to Brzezinski, the U.S. has to dominate that space while the Latin America must not act alone; Europe is to be its closest partner.

How can financial and political crisis stricken Europe rise to global leadership? Brzezinski admits that European Union continues to stagnate and integration processes within are becoming more complicated. He believes the key reason is a failure of Brussels to employ the united potential of member states during the stability period.

Regardless, Brzezinski is skeptical about the collapse of the European Union. His main argument is that U.S. became more engaged with the idea of transatlantic free trade zone. Apparently, Brzezinski believes that the future of the U.S. will depend on the extent of adherence to the trade policies. It is only then that the EU may not only persevere but also emerge as a leading global power. That side of the issue deserves attention from several aspects. It seems that the concept of "Enlarged West" is introduced to boost a new content into leadership aspirations of the U.S. Thus, by leveraging Middle East, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey Washington intends to establish an alternative power center to counter China. Nevertheless, there are certain incompatibilities.

First, America’s policy of the Middle East is yet to be successful. There is no clarity on the ways to resolve contradictions among Arab states, Iran, Israel and Turkey. Therefore, Brzezinski insists that America: "has to conduct more delicate policy in the Middle East” while mentioning no realistic actions to substantiate the claim.

Second, Russia and Turkey are extremely cautious of the idea of transatlantic free trade zone. Turkey’s European Affairs Minister and chief negotiator Egemen Bagis explicitly voiced his concern in this regard. According to Ankara, realization of this idea will deal a serious blow to Turkey’s foreign trade. The country may ultimately succumb to the economic influence of the West and therefore, the idea of free trade zone must be revisited. Moscow’s reaction stems from a similar logic. Apparently, the idea serves the purpose of placing several developing countries into dependence from the West.

Is transcontinental cooperation system viable?

In light of those views there is a need to address the geopolitical situation in the countries of the South Caucasus and the Central Asia as the impact of the establishment of a transatlantic free trade zone upon the regional economies is yet to be determined. Will those countries become self-isolated? Are there any measures envisaged by the West to maintain their growth rate? Would there be any changes in the resolution of regional conflicts? Brzezinski’s theses do not provide answers to those questions.

Moreover, Brzezinski admits that long-term strategy for the countries on the eastern frontiers of the West is absent. The U.S. and Europe have to suggest one. Apparently, he implies global chaos. This aspect is emphasized. He views establishment of a transcontinental system of global cooperation between the large powers as a solution. It is quite an ambitious and complicated process that appears almost inconceivable from the aspect of existing geopolitical contradictions.

Seemingly, former national security adviser has no established position on the issue. For instance, prior to his interview with "Polska" newspaper Brzezinski said that China must align itself with the U.S. instead of Russia (see: Бжезинский предлагает Пекину выбрать между Москвой и Пекином // "Голос России", 26 March, 2013). Interestingly, they wish to incorporate Russia into "Enlarged West" model and yet they are troubled with developing Moscow-Beijing relations. Truth is, Russia-China relations should have conformed to Western interests. It means that first, Russia and China’s place in the foreign policy of Washington is uncertain and second, "Enlarged West" in fact, is nothing but a new model of cooperation consistent with the strategic American interests. Therefore, criteria of establishing transcontinental system of cooperation are quite obscure.

Nevertheless, what we believe the most important is that analysts akin of Brzezinski speak of chaos. It indicates a possibility of reigniting confrontations in any region of the world, and provides an impression that large powers lack just and fair model of the resolution of regional conflicts. For the moment, they only seek efficient means of ensuring their strategic interests.

Immediate objective of the West is to thwart integration in the Eurasian space, regardless of the initiators of the integration model – Russia or Turkey. For Washington, essential is a geopolitical model that conforms to strategic interests of the U.S-Europe duo and incorporates large countries of the Eurasian space. In this context, America considers Eurasia a geographical space gripped with hesitation and tension in between China and Europe. It implies certain actions to stir political turmoil that highlights the issue of security for the countries of the region.

The ways of bolstering democracy under the given circumstances are quite vague. Apparently, Italian political scientist Danilo Zolo’s theoretical conclusion was correct that issue of democracy only complicates affairs on the global scale. The key conclusion in light of those ideas expressed is that large powers must first revisit their policies for the sake of the world.

Related articles

Azərbaycanın xarici ölkələrdəki diplomatik nümayəndəlikləri twitterdə

↳Yeni layihə

Foreign press

When a new energy revolution makes the Russians nervous
25 March 2019 The Washington Times

When a new energy revolution makes the Russians nervous

Upon arrival in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, the first thing you notice is the boomtown feel.

Trade war set to be the United States' next foreign policy quagmire
24 September 2018 The Hill

Trade war set to be the United States' next foreign policy quagmire

History is littered with real wars, like those in Afghanistan, Iraq and Vietnam, that were supposed to be won quickly and cheaply but turned out to be the most expensive and inconclusive of quagmires.