
Baku, 11 April 2013 – Newtimes.az
Along
with the issue of delimitation of the Caspian Sea, one of the commonly known
pressing problems of the Caspian basin is its demilitarization. Albeit
military-naval policy of littoral states is aimed at securing their national
interests both on the coasts and internal waters, as well as open seas,
outstanding distinct differences between some states with respect to
delimitation of the Caspian Sea spearheads the arms race and creation of new
military-navy installations in countries around the Caspian Sea. The course of
building up military-navy capacity by the littoral states is a destabilizing
factor fraught with unpredictable consequences.
Presently,
powerful force of the region is the Caspian fleet of the Russian Navy. It is
composed of some 30 vessels and boats of various types. Most prominent ones are
the two "Gepard” (Cheetah) class frigates – "Tatarstan” (fleet flagman) and
"Dagestan”, capable of carrying significant artillery and torpedo armament, and
missile systems. Apart from the two, the fleet has military vessels of other
classes. In fact, just the patrol vessels and other smaller missile equipped
boats are sufficed to control the good half of the Caspian Sea. 847th fleet
also includes coastal missile division "Astrakhan”, 77th Marines brigade
("Caspiysk”) and a helicopter squadron. The rest of the Caspian Sea nations are
in a handicap both in terms of the number of vessels and the armament compared
to the Caspian Fleet of the Russian Federation.
According
to Russian experts, composition of the navy of the littoral states is not
entirely homogenous both with respect to quality and quantity. Moreover, there
is a difference in the system of forming of operational units of Russian and
Iranian navy. Russia for example, aims to provide the Caspian fleet with
missile and artillery capability ships, whereas Iran prefers building a
"mosquito fleet”, composed of fast and maneuverable missile carrying boats and
mini-submarines for brisk attacks against enemy vessels.
The
reasons are obvious since, at the time, the Caspian fleet of the USSR Navy was
less prioritized than others – Northern, Baltic, Black Sea and Pacific fleets.
Therefore, overhaul initiated several years ago included significantly
increased capacity building efforts of the Caspian formation. Iran’s choice of
provisioning the Caspian fleet with specific vessels has to do with the
consolidation of the main navy force of the country in the Persian Gulf.
Judging by the presence of "mosquito fleet” in the Caspian, Iran does not view
Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan as potential threats that
deserve to be "shielded against” by a massive fleet. Nevertheless, in March
2013, Iran introduced its first domestically built destroyer - "Jamaran-2”,
equipped with guided missiles system that joined its Caspian navy fleet. It is
also outfitted with advanced radar and communication systems and a helicopter
launching pad. It is a multipurpose vessel, capable of handling a wide range of
missions both in the coastal area and the open seas.
All
the littoral states are concerned with potential use of their territory by the
third countries in the event of outbreak of large scale conflicts. Concerns
were reflected in the Final Declaration of the Second Caspian Summit signed by
the Presidents in Tehran on 16 October 2007. The document also underscored
remarks of President Putin of Russia: - "No littoral state must allow other
countries to use its territory for acts of aggression or other military
operations against any party”.
As
far as the major stakeholder countries are concerned, here too, we see
divergence of positions on the issue. Russia under the circumstances deems
demilitarization of Caspian inexpedient while opposing to excessive build up of
military capacity by a certain littoral state. It is becoming apparent that
further militarization of the Caspian and its uncertain legal status form
prerequisites for military-political conflicts among the littoral states, which
only attest to the need of finding mechanisms to ensure the security of the
region. The question is to what extent the countries of the region are
interested in the demilitarization of the Caspian Sea and how realistic it is
to reach consensus among the 5 countries with respect to total elimination of
the navy the move to leave their shores exposed.
In
general, in terms of traditional geopolitics, Caucasus-Caspian geopolitical
space is interpreted from the positions of tellurocracy "Earth” (Russian
empire-USSR-Russia) and deemed an element of continental leverage while from
the position of thallassocracy "Sea” (U.S., NATO) it is viewed as a springboard
for expanding into Eurasia and securing geostrategic and geo-economic control.
Therefore,
it is not at all surprising that this region has always been the scene for both
latent and overt clashes of the geopolitical interests and hundreds of years
old relentless rivalry between the U.S., Great Britain and Germany on one side
and Russia on the opposite. For centuries, the nations of the region have
remained hostages of the situation.
On
the whole, the situation may deteriorate in light of the impasse in
negotiations on delimitation of the sea, and given the fact that scenario of
military confrontation between some littoral states is not excluded, a conflict
that may play into the hands of external players – chiefly, the U.S. and China.
For the U.S. and its close allies this would serve as a pretext and
justification for further arming its regional partners, paving the way for
American military presence in the region. As far as China is concerned the
aggravation of the military-naval situation in the Caspian Sea would entail
ebbing of West bound transportation of energy resources from Central Asia,
ultimately leading to redirection of those volumes towards the Asian-Pacific
markets.
Although,
there is a latent conflict situation with regard to the Caspian basin, it so
far lacks military-political component. However, dramatic developments
unfolding in the Greater Middle East may not leave the Caucasus unaffected. On
the backdrop of ever worsening military-political situation in the Middle East
intense geopolitical rivalry between geostrategic centers being forged, by the
way, with active involvement of the naval forces, brings about quite realistic
prospects of transformation of the entire Black Sea-Caucasus-Caspian Sea space
into a decisive "theatre of military operations” in the Atlantic-Eurasian
geopolitical standoff of the XXI century.
Parvin
Darabadi,
D.Sc.
(Hist.), Professor at the International Relations Chair of Baku State
University
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