The Second Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan changed geo-political situation in the South Caucasus. It is very important to underline that after the Armenian defeat in the April 2016 War, when Azerbaijani army liberated the strategically important hill Lala-Tepe, Armenia's top military leaders strived to regain lost positions rather than accept new realities. As a result of series provocations, full-scale military operations were launched along the entire front in order to suppress the combat activity of the Armenian armed forces, as well as ensure the safety of the civilian population on 27 September 2020.
Author: Shahmar Hajiyev
The former conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus was the main threat to regional security and economic integration. The second Karabakh war which started on 27 September 2020 was a full-scale war. It is very important to highlight that long-lasting Minsk Group-mediated diplomatic talks were resultless. In addition, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's position, when he called into question the "Madrid Principles", led the peace process to a deadlock in which the only way for Azerbaijan to restore its territorial integrity, was successful military operations.
In recent years the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea have emerged as an important alternative source of energy. Therefore, many regional and non-regional states are interested in energy exploration, extraction and transportation to the global energy markets. In July 2020, the US energy company "Chevron" announced the agreement to buy "Noble Energy" for $5 billion. It is worth noting that the deal between "Chevron" and "Noble Energy" is very important because "Noble Energy" discovered Israel's rich Tamar and Leviathan gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea and extracted natural gas from these fields. In the future potential natural gas from these fields will be exported to Europe. In January of the current year Greece, Cyprus and Israel signed an agreement to build the Eastern Mediterranean pipeline (EastMed), which will be able to transport 10 bcm/a of natural gas from the Eastern Mediterranean to the European energy market.
Armenia's position blurred the progress for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and leads to an escalation
The conflict between two South Caucasus countries – Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh became as one of the bloodiest and long-lasting conflicts contributing to instability in the region. After a ceasefire agreement signed in 1994 halting the armed skirmishes in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, Armenia and Azerbaijan pursued, albeit a fragile, diplomatic negotiations to reach a peaceful end to this bloody conflict.
What peace could mean for the South Caucasus
The South Caucasus is a region historically known for its instability, largely because it has stood at the intersection of the zones of influence of first Byzantium and Iran, then the Ottoman Empire and Iran, and finally between Russia, Iran and Turkey.
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