Influence of new world order – Arab awakening

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The geopolitical situation of the planet first characterized as unipolar, then bipolar, and all processes were formed with direct intervention and participation of these poles over the last hundred years. If the bipolar world caused two world wars and later on cold war on the basis of inter-blocs confrontation, the unipolar model, created after the collapse of Warsaw Pact led to emerging hotbeds of conflict and radicalism and strengthening terrorism under the influence of it. But new trends are already observed in geopolitics. But the fact that the European Union distinguishes itself within the Western bloc as well as BRIC countries`s (Brazil, Russia, India and China) emerging as a new world power, although still economic one, means that unipolar world order will encounter problems in the near future.

It is doubtless that formation of a new world order will create disturbances. At the same time creation of a new system is a boost to economic crisis and hesitations. Taking into consideration all these points, it is necessary for the European Union and Euro-Atlantic bloc to increase efforts to defend and strengthen their superior positions in the existing system.

On the other hand, at present the greatest influence of global financial crisis is felt in the European economy. On March 2 this year leaders of 25 member states of the European Union (except for the United Kingdom and Czech Republic) signed a new fiscal treaty to prevent financial crisis in Eurozone. This treaty envisages imposing sanctions on countries facing bankruptcy because of the budget deficit. But coming out of crisis through increasing control over budget expenditures seems very difficult. The fact that geopolitical interests of the European Union surpass its economic state several times increases the impact of the crisis on different nations and necessitates the search for new ways out.    

Some specialists consider that the real causes of “The Arab awakening” are associated with plans of Western countries to enter new markets. So, after the collapse of Warsaw Pact the European Union in its economic interests had followed an enlargement trend towards the East. As a result of this policy, the European Union enlarged towards the East to include countries of former socialist bloc and at present 27 states are members of the organizations. Other areas join integration processes as a buffer and play for the EU the role of a new market through liberalization, advantageous economic potential and other methods. Making investments in these countries by EU’s financial institutions, state and private companies, even huge financial aids, grants and technical assistances had provided for full potential of the new market. So, all these financial resources moving periodically brought benefits to Western countries. Due to the export of major products, including the sale of high technology equipments as well as food products, investments direct financial transfers towards the West. Even huge aids serve political and economic interests of donor countries.

But the economic potential of new independent countries is not already enough to meet geopolitical needs of Europe. On the other hand, strengthening of Eastern neighbors of Europe economically helped them to manufacture some products themselves, even to export some category of products to Europe. These countries try to enter European markets, compete and start reaping benefit by making investment in Europe. Under such conditions,  destination of the income source changes towards the South and that is why the priority of EU’s foreign policy shifts from East to South. This is proved by the following opinion of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton she voiced on March 5, 2012 at a meeting of countries of Visegrad Group, Eastern Partnership and European Union: “Cooperation with Eastern Partnership countries remains one of priorities for the EU’s foreign policy, though efforts of the European diplomacy has already been directed to Southern neighbors.”

There is a special point why the EU has changed its priority in its foreign policy. It is interesting that at a time when the new world order, formed after the collapse of Warsaw Pact, made new demands Europe had put the Africa-Caribe-Pacific Ocean region on the back burner, which was a priority by then and preferred the eastern direction.  

The Africa-Caribe-Pacific Ocean region, which was priority since 1957 of Europe’s foreign policy, pursued the same policy to regulate special relations with former colonies of Europe and to compensate dependence of raw materials from these countries. This program envisaging cooperation between six members of the European Economic Union and 18 former colonies deals with cooperation of the European Union with 78 countries of the Africa-Caribe-Pacific Ocean region. This group included the northern part of Africa, i.e. all nations of the continent except Arabic ones. But after the changes, which happened in 1990’s, this region lost its previous significance in the foreign policy of the European Union. It is interesting that though by then the main direction in EU’s foreign policy towards the countries with which the organization had special relations was liberalization of trade, promotion of private sector, increasing the role of non-governmental actors in society and economy, civil society, later, the demand for democratization became precondition in relations with both Easters and Southern neighbors.

At last, the Arab awakening shook the world in the second decade of the third millennium. Demands for democratization, freedom of speech and expression are being voiced. The target is Arabic states of the Northern Africa and Middle East. Everything can be seen simple. But the fact that the West is the main actor in these developments requires a deep insight into the processes.

The deepening of the crisis enveloping the Euro-Atlantic community and emerging of new power centers in the global horizon make Western countries to face two challenges: finding new raw materials and trade markets may be the way out of economic crisis. The expansion of area of influence to meet requirements of geopolarization of the world can serve creation of a new zone of security and influence.

If we take a look at a map of the above-mentioned regions the EU had “special” relations with in the last 50 years, we can vividly see that the Arabic world is an “old-new” market. At the same time, given the Arabic states do not accept the world domination in recent years the reason why the region selected as target becomes clear. Except these two factors, such an issue can be added to the question of “why just the Arabic world”: the change of scenario, if regulated democratic reforms in this region will not give desirable effect.

So, if changes of government in some Arabic states will lead to strengthening of forces that the West does not want (religious groups such as Muslim brothers) the possibility of a second intervention is always on the agenda. Probably, the current tendencies in the course of processes are only the first stage. Generally so far no one can claim that “Arab awakening” will bring progress and prosperity to the Middle East and North Africa. On the other hand, cyclic processes are happening in the Arabic world over the last several hundred years influencing geopolitical environment every 50 years. The following events happening since the 19th century can be listed: Movement against French colonialists in Algeria since 1850’s, pan-arabism emerged during the decline of the Ottoman Empire in the 20th century, great influence of the 1948 Arab–Israeli war on the Arabic world. Probably the 50-year cyclic period’s approaching could give impetus to certain processes. But unlike Arab awakening, which occurred as a result of the direct foreign intervention processes during all other events reflect the fight of Arabs against foreign invaders. Intervention of power centers in triggering and dynamics of events characterized as “Arab spring” gives ground for concluding that the processes are not internal requirement of the Arabic society.      

Apparently Western countries have changed directions of their development in stages of cataclysm of the ongoing political, economic, even ecological processes in various historical epochs and a new world order has been formed in accordance with this.

The fact that economic crisis in Europe can’t be prevented, in turn, led to Arab awakening. The main demand is democratization. But today democracy has turned into means of political speculation and a tool serving realization of imperial interests of global power centers. 

Such social orders exporting from “democracy” centers do not harmonize with the level of development, national interests, traditions and religious outlook of peoples seek real democracy. But the history has repeatedly witnessed in practice that cataclysms happening in the world have always led to artificial intervention. During the crisis the West always looks for its salvation abroad. It would be correct to associate the reasons of Arab awakening with these factors.

New Times

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